The Cost of Pioneering

Let us think about the people of Trantor that were to be a part of the Encyclopedia Foundation. Hari Seldon had arranged for them all – 100,000 or so – to be exiled to Terminus, there to work on collecting and storing all the knowledge of mankind. We might presume the Emperor himself funded the trip, but then again, this was an exile, not an award, so it is perfectly possible that those of the Encyclopedia Foundation had to foot the bill themselves.

How much did that cost? Was it even credible that it could be done, or was Dr. Asimov taking liberties?

Freeman Dyson once speculated in 1978 that space colonization would be impractical until the cost could come down to about $40,000. In 2011, that translates into a little over $130,000. Per person. He derived these figures from examining the detailed accounts of the Pilgrims of the early 1600s and the Latter Day Saints who pioneered in the mid-19th century. He realized that if you couldn’t get it down to that sum, then it would be impractical for any but governments or large corporations to afford.

$130,000 is a lot of money. And while space colonization still costs much more (which is why it’s not being done yet) that cost would be enough to keep most from trying. But, as it works out to three to six years wages for an “average” man, then given some dedication, and a willingness to go into some form of debt (perhaps even indentured servitude) one can see that would be doable.

Those of Trantor getting ready to go to Terminus for work on the Encyclopedia Foundation had some plusses and minuses in their trip. On the plus side, after 20,000 years (and then some) of space travel, we may assume that the costs were more comparable to relocating from wherever you are to the furthest point on Earth away from you. If we figure Chicago to Mongolia, that is a flight of under $2,000. Presumably freighting your stuff would not exceed another $3000, but even if it did, it still would be possible to “move” there for under $10,000.

Great! No problem for the “pioneers” then, right? Well, let’s look at some “minuses”. For starters, the Galactic Empire is falling, and space travel isn’t what it used to be. But that’s not too big an issue, after all, the Empire still has all the amenities on Trantor, so it won’t affect their move. The bigger factor is that they are not moving to a place where there is already a civilization up and running, where they can rent apartments or buy houses that are already there. No, they are moving to the barren planet of Terminus, with little land available, and none of that developed, and no easily minable metals.

In other words, they are actually – in our terms – moving to Antarctica. And that costs a lot more than Mongolia. It’s about $10,000 just to get down there. Taking all into account, you are looking – if you were going to colonize – about the same amount as Freeman Dyson estimated would be needful for space colonization to be practical. About $130,000. (On the upside, it looks as if it is now becoming possible to colonize Antarctica, should any hardy pioneers wish it!)

So those of the Encyclopedia Foundation were in every sense “pioneers” as it would cost them about the same to colonize Terminus as it would cost us to colonize Antarctica, or what it cost earlier pioneers. Which still leaves another problem…

The pioneers of America had time. They didn’t have to leave, it was their choice. They left when they could afford to, or when they could find sponsors. They weren’t hurried. Those of Hari Seldon’s project were hurried. And given that they probably had not been saving up for three to six years, it is doubtful that many of them had the price of the colonization effort.

Back to a plus, they were professional people. A simple cashing out of all they owned may have assisted. Most reasonably responsible middle aged people can, if cashing out, come up with $50,000 to $100,000 by the simple expedient of selling their house and cars and electronics. They were not janitors and fry clerks, they were degreed professionals, and on average of middle age and with families.

So they’d have been able to come up with some noticeable amounts. Perhaps then those who agreed with Hari in private were sponsoring this, even if they weren’t going themselves. It was an unpopular group though, so they'd have had to have done it quietly. Realistically, when all was said and done, it was probably the Emperor who made up the difference. If we assume that each could raise $100,000 by cashing out, and that this was split amongst the average of four per family, then the Emperor would need to chip in about $100,000 per person to get rid of these folks. That’s about $10 billion.

One starts to see why Lewis Pirenne – on the Board of Directors of the Encyclopedia Foundation – was so sure that the Emperor wouldn’t let the King of Anacreon interfere with them! The Emperor, no matter what additional donations came in – clearly had to put up a lot of the costs. However, as the U.S. government spends that in roughly two and a half days, one can assume that the Emperor of the entire Galaxy would regard that as a minutely small expenditure. But how small? How do we figure what $10 billion would be to the Emperor of the Galaxy?

Consider that the U.S. has 300,000,000 people to draw from in raising $10,000,000,000. The Emperor would have had far more people to tax for this. There were said to be 25,000,000 worlds in the Galactic Empire, if each had but one billion people that would work out to 25,000,000,000,000,000 (25 quadrillion) people! So while each of the citizens of the United States would have had to pay $33.33 on this, the same $10 billion would have each citizen of the Galactic Empire paying about four ten millionths of a penny!

While such a program at $33 per citizen would be too minor for the U.S. government to worry about, imagine how much less that they’d worry about a program that only cost each citizen less than a millionth of a penny? In fact, if you wish to know how easily the Emperor could afford to get to get rid of the Encyclopedists, consider that ten billion dollars is to the Emperor what $120 would be to the President of the United States!

So one sees why Lewis Pirenne was wrong about how much the Emperor cared after all!

The hardy pioneers would have had to cash out, the Emperor’s men would have seen to that. No one wanted Hari Seldon and his people to have it easy. But the cost of making up the difference, while large to an individual, was as nothing to a galaxy spanning Empire. One of the Emperor’s fifth assistant commissioner’s secretary could have approved that from the petty cash of any sub-department!

So Asimov took no liberties at all. The personal costs per pioneer, while devastating, were then easily supplemented from the Galactic Treasury.